End User
City of Athens
Description
The Long-Term Energy & Cost Planning service provides the Municipality of Athens with a strategic planning capability that translates operational consumption data into annual and multi-year energy budget forecasts. By constructing building-level consumption trajectories based on actual historical behaviour and seasonal patterns, the service produces portfolio-level annual cost projections under conservative, central, and adverse price scenarios, supporting municipal finance directorates and the central energy management team.
Core Capabilities
Predictive & Prescriptive Analytics
Optimization & Decision Support
Business Need
Municipal energy budgets are typically set using rough extrapolations of past expenditure or standard tariff estimates, without accounting for building-level consumption differences, seasonal variability, or tariff changes. The service provides finance directorates with a quantified, evidence-based basis for annual budget planning, with uncertainty ranges rather than point estimates, and with annual reconciliation that improves forecast accuracy over successive planning cycles.
Key Performance Indicators
Annual forecast accuracy (MAPE): deviation between projected and verified actual consumption at building and portfolio level
Stratified accuracy by building category to identify structurally higher-uncertainty building types
Reconciliation report quality: systematic deviations trigger review of modelling assumptions
Budget planning utility: alignment with municipal finance directorate planning cycles
Data Provided
Historical energy bills and billing period records per building
Real-time smart meter telemetry updated on a rolling basis
Seasonal consumption profiles and degree-day climatology
Three tariff trajectory scenarios (conservative, central, adverse)
Annual energy budget forecast broken down by building category
TEF
TEF BUILD