End User
PPC
Description
The Cascaded Hydropower Forecasting service provides integrated short-term forecasting for the Aliakmonas River hydropower cascade in Northern Greece. Track 1 predicts natural inflows to Ilarionas reservoir; Track 2 predicts electrical production at Asomata HPP, addressing the unique challenge of forecasting in an incomplete cascade where operational data from the intermediate Polyfyto reservoir is unavailable. Both tracks operate at daily resolution over a 1-7 day horizon.
Core Capabilities
Predictive & Prescriptive Analytics
Business Need
PPC operates the Aliakmonas cascade where accurate inflow and production forecasts are essential for market bidding, water resource allocation, and irrigation demand planning — particularly during the June-August peak agricultural period when water release constraints are binding. The challenge of forecasting in an incomplete cascade (missing Polyfyto data) requires specialised methodology not addressed by standard forecasting approaches.
Key Performance Indicators
R2, MAE, RMSE, and SMAPE per forecast day D+1 through D+7
Prediction interval calibration at P10, P50, P90 levels
Seasonal stratification performance across irrigation-constrained summer periods
Service reliability: structured error responses for insufficient data conditions
Data Provided
Track 1: daily natural inflow forecasts (m3/day) at Ilarionas with P10/P50/P90 uncertainty
Track 2: daily electrical production forecasts (MWh/day) at Asomata with uncertainty quantification
Inputs: PPC operational data (reservoir levels, inflows, production) + Open-Meteo weather forecasts
TEF
TEF RES